SPC MD 1730



MD 1730 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 444… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

MD 1730 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

Areas affected...Portions of South Central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 444...

Valid 270251Z - 270445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 444 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for all severe hazards continues in WW 444.
Storms will be moving into an area of greater instability and wind
fields that are supportive of low-level rotation. With time, storms
may grow upscale into a line where embedded rotation will accompany
a more widespread severe wind gust threat.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms from Kerr County Texas to near
Laughlin AFB has continued to progress eastward. The 00Z DRT
sounding shows 70+ kts of effective bulk shear with mid-level lapse
rates of over 8 C/km. Storms on the northern end of the line have
tended to congeal owing to deep-layer shear parallel to the
initiating dryline. However, two cells near Laughlin AFB have been
able to remain relatively discrete. A relative maxima in instability
exists to the east of these storms with around 2500 J/kg in the
objective analysis fields. Though the most enlarged low-level
hodographs will exist to the northeast of WW 444, where the
low-level jet will be strongest, KDFX and KEWX VAD data support
150-200 m2/s2 SRH. Tornadoes will be possible with these storms,
particularly if any can remain discrete as they encounter better
low-level moisture. Large hail is also possible given the lapse
rates. With time, storms may grow upscale, but embedded rotation
will still remain possible along with a more widespread severe wind
gust threat.

..Wendt.. 12/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   28619833 28640011 29120073 29150076 29170076 29170077
            29220080 29230080 30290069 30509930 30629805 30629801
            30629795 30559695 30549693 30549691 30299663 30299663
            29379723 29119761 28619833 28619833 

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