SPC MD 1738



MD 1738 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA…FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA…WESTERN/NORTHERN MINNESOTA

MD 1738 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1738
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota...far southeast North
Dakota...western/northern Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 280007Z - 280500Z

SUMMARY...Brief periods of heavy snow, with accumulations of up to 1
inch/hr are possible over the next few hours. In addition, brief,
isolated instances of blizzard conditions may also occur.

DISCUSSION...A 996 mb surface low, currently located across
north-central IA, is expected to continue moving off to the
northeast for the next several hours, with little change in
intensity forecast. A steady stream of 925-850 mb moisture continues
to advect into the Mississippi valley region, where relatively
strong 850 mb frontogenesis continues to support continued lift of
these moist air parcels within a sub-freezing troposphere
(especially from central MN, westward). While the dendritic growth
zone across the discussion area is not particularly deep (i.e.
700-900 m), near-saturation to saturated conditions in the 925-500
mb layer with sub-freezing temps, combined with modest lift suggests
that at least some brief heavy snow potential exists, including for
snowfall rates of up to 1+ inches/hr. 

Blizzard conditions have also been reported along the western
periphery of the low throughout the day, and with little change in
surface low intensity and associated gradient wind expected,
additional instances of blizzard conditions remain possible for at
least the next few hours, especially in portions of eastern South
Dakota.

..Squitieri.. 12/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   43179594 43209675 44229707 44459825 45969800 46749610
            47519283 47959064 47679042 46929203 46209388 45139536
            43179594 

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