SPC MD 1739


MD 1739 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1739
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

Areas affected...Central and eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 280547Z - 281145Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy snow are expected across the area through
the early morning hours. 1+ inch/hr rates are expected, with up to 2
inch/hr rates possible in the higher elevations.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough continues to deepen across the
southwestern CONUS, with a 100+ knot 300 mb jet streak approaching
the area from the west. Simultaneously, sfc-850 mb easterly cold air
advection has been cooling low-level profiles, with temperatures
quickly dropping below freezing at the surface. In addition, the
westward moving boundary of the colder low-level airmass is
fostering strong low-level convergence. Upper-level divergence
associated with the left-exit region of the aforementioned jet
streak overlapping areas of strong 925-850 mb frontogenesis is
currently promoting very strong, deep-layer ascent. 

A relatively deep (800+ m), nearly saturated dendritic growth zone
is present across these areas experiencing strong ascent, suggesting
heavy snow potential will be a concern within the next few hours,
through early morning. Latest ensemble model guidance also suggests
heavy snow potential across central and eastern portions of New
Mexico through sunrise, with 1+ inch/hr rates likely in the lower
elevations and 2+ inch/hr rates in the higher terrain.

..Squitieri.. 12/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   32930576 33010663 33690714 34930652 35790603 36090547
            36230427 36190323 35600266 34060303 33120410 32930576 

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