SPC MD 1741



MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST AL…FAR SOUTHERN MS

MD 1741 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1741
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

Areas affected...southwest AL...far southern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 280915Z - 281015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for mesocyclones may maximize with
quasi-discrete storms as they merge with the squall line.  A modest
conditional risk for a brief/weak tornado and/or wind damage would
likely focus with rotating convective structures.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a warm front over
southwest AL extending east but arcing to the southeast towards
Dothan.  South of the boundary, surface-based buoyancy (750-1000
J/kg SBCAPE) will support updraft vigor in combination with
low-level shear aiding in storm organization.  It seems a condition
of a stronger/deeper and more persistent updraft (characterized by
echo tops exceeding 30,000 ft) is needed to potentially acquire
low-level rotation.  Yet, based on radar analysis during the past
several hours, storm intensification may also need a favorable
cold-pool-merging interaction between a quasi-discrete storm and the
squall line.  Given the conditional environment is favorable for
storm rotation but only one storm has realized this potential, will
continue to monitor activity over the central Gulf Coast.

..Smith/Grams.. 12/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30208948 32088807 32378735 32008663 31638710 30298867
            30208948 

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