SPC MD 1748



MD 1748 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN

MD 1748 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1748
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

Areas affected...Central Iowa through northern Michigan

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 311750Z - 312345Z

SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation is expected to develop/continue
from central Iowa northeastward through northern Michigan along/near
a surface front this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is expected to continue
moving northeast from northern Missouri into the Great Lakes this
afternoon/evening. An associated surface low, now located in
northern Missouri, will follow a similar track to the northeast into
Michigan. Cold air advection on the backside of the upper-level
trough/surface low will lower surface temperatures and eventually
erode the warm nose between 925-850 mb. This will result in
sleet/freezing rain initially before turning into snow in/near the
rain/snow transition zone stretching from DMX toward MBS. Brief
heavy snow is possible when the upper-level trough passes overhead
with portions of south-central Wisconsin/northern Michigan having
the best chances for 1"/hour snowfall rates this afternoon/evening
as low-level frontogenetical forcing strengthens.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 12/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...
DMX...

LAT...LON   41589422 41849437 42219437 42719388 43329264 43899128
            44439008 44848908 45608684 45878597 45838465 45618394
            45428355 45088329 44738328 44398338 44088357 43698405
            43488471 43318559 43138652 42818791 42638910 42479004
            42349079 42089179 41659313 41529358 41459407 41589422 

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