MD 0007 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CST Fri Jan 04 2019

Areas affected...Western/Central FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 040704Z - 040900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A low-probability threat exists for damaging wind gust
and/or a brief tornado during the next 2 hours or so across the
western and central FL Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...A strongly forced but shallow convective band continues
to move eastward at 25-30 kt into the far western FL Peninsula. Air
mass ahead of this line is modestly moist with dewpoints generally
in the mid/upper 60s. However, warm temperatures aloft and the
resulting lack of steeper lapse rates is tempering overall
instability. Modified RAP soundings estimate MLCAPE on the order of
250-350 J/kg across the western/central FL Panhandle.

In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics, kinematic fields are
quite strong. Recent EVX VAD profiles show deep unidirectional
southwesterly flow aloft. When modifying these profiles with
observed surface winds from VPS, estimates of 0-1 km SRH are over
220 m2/s2 and of 0-1 km bulk shear are over 30 kt. This strongly
sheared low-level environment supports the potential for storm
rotation, even within shallow convection. As such, there is a
low-probability threat for a damaging wind gust and perhaps even a
brief tornado during the next 2 hours or so.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 01/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   30668738 30778707 30848642 30798564 30548549 30188573
            30228625 30258684 30228740 30668738 

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