SPC MD 8



MD 0008 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AL…CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE

MD 0008 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0008
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 AM CST Fri Jan 04 2019

Areas affected...Far Southeast AL...Central FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041105Z - 041330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
are possible as the convective line continues eastward into
southeast GA and the central FL Peninsula.

DISCUSSION...Shallow convective line continues to push eastward
across far southeast AL and the western/central FL Panhandle.
Despite a general increase in updraft strength and echo tops, the
line has remained devoid of any lightning onshore. Air mass ahead of
the line has modified slightly, with dewpoints now in the 70s across
the central FL Panhandle and mid 60s dewpoints as far north as ABY
in far southwest GA. This has lead to a modest increase in
instability with MLCAPE now estimated near 500 J/kg. Instability
quickly drops off near the FL Big Bend where warm temperatures aloft
remain in place and cooler low-level trajectories exist.

Surface winds have backed ahead of the line and recent TLH VAD data
suggests 0-1 km SRH over 250 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear near 30 kt. This
favorable low-level shear coupled with sufficient instability
supports the potential for mesovortices embedded in the convective
line, particularly where deeper, more persistent updrafts exist. As
such, isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are
possible. Marginal nature of the threat and low probability of
occurrence will preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 01/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   31718511 31808465 31588423 30938394 30128408 29818467
            29688539 29948557 31008502 31718511 

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