SPC MD 9



MD 0009 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT

MD 0009 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CST Fri Jan 04 2019

Areas affected...Parts of the northeast Georgia and South Carolina
Piedmont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 042322Z - 050115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...There appears at least some risk for an intensifying
thunderstorm or two, which could be accompanied by potential for a
tornado or localized damaging wind gust into the 7-9 PM EST time
frame.  The threat currently still appears too low for a watch
issuance, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...An arcing zone of stronger mid-level forcing for
ascent, ahead of the compact closed low migrating into the upper
Tennessee Valley, has supported the evolution of a northeastward
advancing band of convection and embedded thunderstorm activity
across the Cumberland Plateau through the southern Appalachians
vicinity.  On the southern periphery of the band, across the
northeast Georgia piedmont, this includes discrete storms along a
warm frontal zone extending east northeastward into the South
Carolina piedmont.

Objective analysis and forecast soundings suggest that only very
weak boundary layer destabilization is taking place along the warm
front, and within the warm sector, with CAPE generally below 500
J/kg.  However, beneath 30-40+ kt southerly 850 mb flow, low-level
hodographs are clockwise curved and sizable, beneath strong deep
layer shear in the vicinity of 100 kt 500 mb jet.

Although probabilities still appear fairly low, it might not be
entirely out of the question that the environment along the warm
frontal zone could become supportive of an intensifying low-topped
supercell or two, accompanied by the risk for a tornado or damaging
downburst, into the 00-02Z time frame.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 01/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   34508268 34628247 34908170 34928118 34428098 34158122
            33948214 33948286 34238283 34508268 

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