SPC MD 23



MD 0023 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST MN…NORTHEAST IA…SOUTHERN WI…FAR NORTHERN IL

MD 0023 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0023
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

Areas affected...Southeast MN...Northeast IA...Southern WI...Far
Northern IL

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 190058Z - 190700Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snow rates will be possible this
evening, with a decreasing trend expected from west to east with
time.

DISCUSSION...The persistent heavy snow band across portions of
southern MN and far northeast IA has begun exhibiting a weakening
trend in the last 1-2 hours. The midlevel frontogenesis that
sustained this band across southern MN should continue to weaken
this evening, as a northern stream shortwave trough moving across
the Dakotas continues moving southeastward as it deamplifies.
Meanwhile, low-to-midlevel frontogenesis may become refocused to
some extent further southeast from far northeast IA into southern WI
and northern IL later this evening, in response to the deepening
cyclone moving across the southern Plains. Moderate ascent through
the dendritic growth layer will support relatively efficient snow
production, with moderate to locally heavy snow rates remaining
possible through the evening. 

Snowfall should begin spreading into northeast IL (including the
Chicagoland area) after 03Z, while snow rates further west across
northeast IA and southern MN should substantially diminish by this
time.

..Dean.. 01/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42619090 42859214 43209305 43629368 43899333 44029231
            43559020 43018849 42738806 42688788 41848770 41548836
            42258995 42619090 

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