SPC MD 29



MD 0029 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 2… FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE

MD 0029 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

Areas affected...southeast Mississippi through southern and central
Alabama and Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 2...

Valid 191737Z - 191900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a few tornadoes will persist
into the afternoon from southeast MS through southern and central AL
and the western FL panhandle.

DISCUSSION...As of mid day a line of storms extending from near
Tuscaloosa Al southwest to just east of Slidell continues east at
around 30 kt. The atmosphere remains marginally unstable downstream
with around 500 J/kg MLCAPE, and some cloud breaks evident on
visible imagery should contribute to modest destabilization of the
boundary layer. Therefore, storms within the line and developing
along the warm conveyor belt will likely maintain their intensity
this afternoon. Given the size of low-level hodographs with 300-400
m2/s2 0-1 km storm-relative helicity, the threat for embedded
supercells and a few tornadoes will persist.

A cluster of low-topped showers has also developed during the past
hour over southern AL and FL panhandle within a zone of weak
low-level confluence. RAP soundings indicate a couple of modest
mid-level inversions, and given presence of only very weak forcing,
it remains uncertain whether deeper convection can be sustained.
However, as the surface layer continues to warm, some potential
exists for at least a couple of these updrafts to intensify and
develop supercell structures.

..Dial.. 01/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30568678 30268774 30208866 30378926 31468891 32888807
            33488721 33548613 32988585 30568678 

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