SPC MD 35



MD 0035 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 3… FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST GA…EASTERN FL PANHANDLE

MD 0035 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0806 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

Areas affected...Central/Southwest GA...Eastern FL Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...

Valid 200206Z - 200300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will continue to diminish across central GA.
Some severe threat may extend past 03Z in southwest GA/eastern FL
Panhandle and extension in time and/or area of Tornado Watch 3 may
be needed. The probability of a new watch downstream is low.

DISCUSSION...Singular convective line that moved across eastern
AL/western FL Panhandle/western GA has devolved into two distinct
lines, one moving through central GA and the other moving across the
eastern FL Panhandle. The air mass downstream of the northern line
is characterized by temperatures in mid 60s, dewpoints in the mid to
upper 50s, and marginal instability (i.e. MLCAPE less than 250
J/kg). Consequently, despite favorable vertical shear, this portion
of the line is expected to gradually lose strength.

Air mass downstream of the southern line is characterized by
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and MLCAPE closer to 500 J/kg. As a
result, the longevity of this line will likely extend past the 03Z
(the expiration time of Tornado Watch 3) and some extension in time
and/or area may be needed if trends merit. Even so, given the
veering low-level flow and shallow nature of the ongoing line, the
severe threat after 03Z appears to be isolated enough to preclude
the need for a new watch.

..Mosier.. 01/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   32398404 33278336 33458276 32938261 31018317 29938399
            29718532 31148455 32398404 

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