SPC MD 45



MD 0045 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IN…SOUTHERN LOWER MI…AND FAR NORTHWESTERN OH

MD 0045 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northern IN...southern Lower MI...and
far northwestern OH

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 230000Z - 230600Z

SUMMARY...Generally light freezing rain should continue through much
of the evening, with rates up to 0.05 inch per hour.

DISCUSSION...Strong warm air advection is occurring with a 40-60 kt
southwesterly low-level jet from the mid MS Valley into the lower
Great Lakes region this evening. Related isentropic ascent atop a
shallow sub-freezing layer near the surface is contributing to light
precipitation in a 100-125 mile wide zone from eastern IL into
northern IN, southern Lower MI, and far northwestern OH. Surface
observations over the past several hours indicate light freezing
rain has been the dominant precipitation type so far across this
region, as a shallow above freezing layer generally between 850-800
mb per RAP forecast soundings melts frozen hydrometeors aloft. This
light freezing rain is expected to persist for at least a couple
more hours as the 0C isotherm at 850 mb should only gradually shift
northward across southern Lower MI through 06Z. Ice accretion rates
up to 0.05 inch per hour have already been observed at several
sites, and this trend should continue for several more hours.
Eventually, gradual warming at low levels will likely result in a
transition to rain as surface temperatures slowly increase above
freezing from south to north.

..Gleason.. 01/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   41118663 41368745 41678744 41718704 41958659 42298632
            42438548 42718415 42988302 43018248 42618243 42318296
            42058310 41628327 41268391 41188496 41118663 

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