SPC MD 46



MD 0046 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NY

MD 0046 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

Areas affected...Central portions of NY

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 231108Z - 231645Z

SUMMARY...A mixture of sleet and freezing rain will continue to
develop and spread from west to east across central portions of New
York this morning.  Prior to surface temperatures rising above 32 F
between 10 AM to 1 PM EST, freezing rainfall rates up to 0.05 inch
per hour will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A gradual rise in surface temperatures is expected
today, as winds remain southerly ahead of an area of low pressure
moving through Lower MI and a trailing cold front advancing through
the Ohio Valley.  Although strongest forcing for ascent attendant to
an associated progressive shortwave trough will remain west of the
discussion area, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet
extending into NY today will result in an increase in warm air
advection through this morning.  This latter process will allow
temperatures above the surface to continue warming faster, resulting
in a vertical thermal profile favoring a change or mix of
precipitation types (light snow changing to sleet).  Further warming
above the surface, prior to surface temperatures rising above 32 F,
should result in the development of freezing rain.  Trends in radar
imagery indicated a stream of precipitation extending
east-northeastward from IL/IN to NY, with the potential for freezing
rainfall rates up to 0.05 inch per hour.  Given that surface
temperatures should rise above 32 F between 10 AM to 1 PM EST, the
overall duration of freezing rain may tend to be only a few hours
(3-4 hours).

..Peters.. 01/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   42537623 42927709 43237685 43547623 43847605 43857549
            43717473 43257432 42877480 42537623 

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