SPC MD 52



MD 0052 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA

MD 0052 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CST Thu Jan 24 2019

Areas affected...East-central/southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241334Z - 241500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado and/or locally damaging winds could occur this
morning along the east-central coast and south-central Florida
Peninsula.

DISCUSSION...A couple of supercells have been noted early this
morning ahead of a convective line, and any lingering severe risk
early today will likely be with these storms. Much of the convective
line itself has exhibited a weakening trend per a radar-observed
decrease in mid-level updraft intensity along with a downward trend
of cloud-ground lightning and warming cloud tops. The line-preceding
semi-discrete showers/storms will likely continue to regenerate
within a relatively moist environment characterized by mid/upper 60s
F surface dewpoints, with the 12Z Miami observed sounding and SPC
Objective Analysis supportive of upwards of 800-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
preceding the convective line. Given some additional warming of the
boundary layer this morning, there is at least some possibility that
an additional surface-based storm or two could intensify.
Accordingly, some possibility of a tornado and/or damaging winds
continues within a highly sheared environment, although the overall
severe potential is likely past its peak (pre-sunrise).

..Guyer.. 01/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   26258174 27148102 28078042 27798020 26307999 25848170
            26258174 

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