SPC MD 56



MD 0056 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS

MD 0056 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0056
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

Areas affected...south Florida and the Keys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 272314Z - 280115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A broken band of showers -- with a few embedded lightning
strikes -- will cross south Florida and the Keys over the next few
hours.  A locally strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out,
particularly over the Keys.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data shows a broken band of low-topped
showers -- with occasional/embedded lightning -- moving across
western portions of the Florida Keys, and now reaching the southwest
Florida Peninsula (Monroe County).  The more vigorous updrafts are
occurring near and south of a surface baroclinic zone, aligned
west-southwest to east-northeast across Monroe and Miami-Dade
counties per the latest surface analysis.

Latest objective analysis shows weak mixed-layer CAPE (generally
around 500 J/kg) south of the aforementioned boundary, but the
kinematic trend has been toward a gradual veering of the low-level
flow.  This combined with the limited CAPE suggests an overall
environment not particularly conducive for generation of damaging
convective wind gusts.  Still, with flow aloft greater than 50 kt
above 2km AGL, a strong wind gust cannot be ruled out over the next
few hours -- particularly across the Keys where CAPE is slightly
greater.

..Goss/Grams.. 01/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   25918043 26027996 25348015 24708080 24368194 25008137
            25588112 25918043 

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