SPC MD 63



MD 0063 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO IN NORTHWEST NY

MD 0063 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 AM CST Thu Jan 31 2019

Areas affected...Lee of Lake Ontario in northwest NY

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 311553Z - 312200Z

SUMMARY...A heavy lake effect snow band will shift northward,
bringing rapidly deteriorating conditions to parts of central
Jefferson and northern Lewis counties in northwest NY. Snowfall
rates of 2-4 inches per hour will be possible at times.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar loop from KTYX has shown a northward shift
in the heavy lake effect snow band impacting northern Oswego,
southern Jefferson and western Lewis counties. Latest hi-res
guidance from the HRRR, along with the 4km NAM and RAP guidance
suggest this northward shift may continue, bringing the heavy snow
band into central Jefferson and northern Lewis counties.  This would
bring quickly deteriorating conditions from Sackets Harbor to
Watertown and Great Bend in Jefferson County, eastward into northern
Lewis County. Snowfall rates up to 2-4 inches per hour will remain
possible with this band the next several hours. Additionally, gusty
winds likely will continue through the afternoon, further
exacerbating hazardous conditions with blowing and drifting snow and
near-whiteout conditions. 

Some minor north to south wobbles in the band may occur into the
evening as low level convergence varies as the surface low over
northern Ontario slowly begins to shift east/northeast later
today/tonight and stronger surface high pressure builds into the
Mid-Atlantic and southwestern New England.

..Leitman.. 01/31/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43997657 44137637 44157596 44077539 43757514 43487533
            43497575 43517621 43617648 43807656 43997657 

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