SPC MD 66



MD 0066 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN

MD 0066 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Mon Feb 04 2019

Areas affected...northern Wisconsin through western Upper Michigan

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 040751Z - 041245Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to gradually increase in
coverage and intensity through the early morning, initially across
northern WI, but expanding into western portions of lower MI after
11Z. Rates occasionally from .05 to locally exceeding .1 inch per
hour are possible.

DISCUSSION...Early this morning a quasi-stationary front extends
from a very weak surface low in southeast MN eastward through
central WI. North of this boundary surface temperatures are below
freezing, ranging from around 32F to 27F. WV imagery shows a
progressive shortwave trough over the Northern Plains, and this
feature will contribute to slight deepening of the surface low and
modest strengthening of a southerly low level jet across WI as it
continues eastward. As a result, warm advection and isentropic
ascent will gradually increase within baroclinic zone across
northern WI. These processes will contribute to development of a
melting layer and a shallow, weak unstable layer above the surface.
Scattered showers over central WI will spread northward, and
precipitation should gradually become more widespread over northern
WI within the zone of increasing isentropic ascent. Temperatures in
the melting layer will warm such that the dominant precipitation
type should become freezing rain with rates at times up to .1 inch
per hour in heavier convective elements.

..Dial/Grams.. 02/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

LAT...LON   46199186 46519097 46688982 46498884 46058856 45628875
            45558947 45789047 45719200 46199186 

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