SPC MD 75



MD 0075 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE…AND VICINITY

MD 0075 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019

Areas affected...southwestern and into middle Tennessee...and
vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 062102Z - 062300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Limited/isolated severe risk is indicated over the next
couple of hours, from the Memphis vicinity eastward across parts of
Middle Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...Latest analysis shows a surface outflow boundary which
has settled southward in a west-to-east manner, and is now residing
just south of the Nashville metro area.  Repeated bands of showers
and embedded thunderstorms have moved across this region this
morning and afternoon, within an environment of minimal CAPE (as
sampled by the BNA 18Z RAOB) but strong deep-layer speed shear.

Within the past hour, a stronger convective cell briefly acquired
low-level rotation -- as it interacted with the aforementioned
outflow boundary, but quickly weakened thereafter.  Similar behavior
with one or two other cells may occur over the next couple of hours,
where the main severe risk would be a brief tornado, or a locally
strong/severe wind gust.  Overall severe risk should remain low
however, within the broad low-level warm advection regime beneath
weakly anticyclonic mid-level flow.  As such, WW is not anticipated
at this time.

..Goss/Guyer.. 02/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   36168539 35738498 35308638 35128872 34709010 35099042
            35648982 35968871 36128771 36068632 36168539 

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