SPC MD 77



MD 0077 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND

MD 0077 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019

Areas affected...Portions of Upstate New York and New England

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 062350Z - 070545Z

SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation is expected to continue and
spread eastward across portions of Upstate New York and New England
tonight.

DISCUSSION...Warm-air advection resulting in isentropic lifting is
producing rain/winter-mixed precipitation across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast this evening. Winter mixed precipitation has
been occurring across Upstate New York and has now moved into
northern New England in the last hour or so. Mostly freezing rain
has been reported so far across the area, but sleet will likely mix
in with colder surface temperatures and farther north where the warm
nose is higher and near/at freezing. The warm nose is located around
900 mb - 800 mb and is only about 1-2 F above freezing. Surface
temperatures are slightly warmer than the most recent RAP/HRRR runs,
which may result in more rain than freezing rain across
central/southern New Hampshire/Vermont. However, wet
bulbing/evaporative cooling should lower surface temperatures, and
freezing rain rates of 0.05-0.2" per hour are expected with sleet
mixed across northern portions of the MCD. The warm air advection
and isentropic lifting will be strongest just south of the
sub-freezing surface temperatures and the lifting will begin to
weaken later tonight and overnight.

..Nauslar/Edwards.. 02/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF...

LAT...LON   45097426 45067274 45047151 44887071 44727023 44576986
            44326974 43916984 43627011 43267055 43107078 43127109
            43287153 43377203 43447250 43497301 43517342 43547401
            43637449 43737509 43947588 44177604 44647566 44957505
            45097426 

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