SPC MD 78



MD 0078 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN/WEST-CENTRAL OK

MD 0078 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0558 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019

Areas affected...Southwestern/West-Central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 062358Z - 070200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible from southwest into west-central
OK for the next few hours. A watch is not anticipated during this
time frame but convective trends will be monitored closely.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular convection continues to show sporadic
intensification as it moves northeastward from southwest OK into
west-central OK. Ongoing storms have shown only varied updraft
persistence, likely a result of continued convective inhibition and
currently limited instability. Downstream air mass across
west-central OK is not currently supportive of robust updrafts and
the much of the ongoing activity should gradually dissipate as it
progresses northeastward. Still, persistent isentropic ascent across
the stationary boundary will likely lead to continued development
across southwest OK and adjacent far northwest TX. The downstream
environment across west-central OK is expected to gradually become
more favorable as the layer between 850 and 700 mb moistens,
increasing elevated buoyancy and the potential for hail. 

Overall coverage is expected to be fairly limited for at least the
next few hours, leading to low watch probabilities during that time
frame. However, convective trends will be monitored closely and
there is the potential the higher storm coverage later this evening
may merit watch issuance.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 02/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   34559865 34499934 34659975 35049995 35649968 35899910
            36009854 36029795 35799764 35259757 34879787 34559865 

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