SPC MD 82



MD 0082 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST TX…CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK

MD 0082 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019

Areas affected...Northwest TX...Central/South-Central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070416Z - 070615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible over the next few hours as
storms move quickly northeastward into central/south-central OK.

DISCUSSION...Another round of convection has flared up within the
broad southwesterly flow ahead of a deep upper trough currently over
the Intermountain West. The impetus for this round appears to be a
weak perturbation within the strong southwesterly flow. Forecast
soundings suggest the activity in western OK is likely rooted near
850 mb atop the shallow stable and cold low-level air mass. Activity
farther south is likely elevated as well. Strongest storms are
currently in western OK where the steepest mid-level lapse rates
exist. Hail is possible with these storms. Air mass downstream of
these storms is characterized by MUCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and
strong vertical shear (i.e. effective shear around 60 kt). As a
result, the ongoing storms will pose a continued hail threat for at
least the next hour or so.

Storms in northwest TX are currently in an area of less instability
but the downstream air mass across south-central OK is similar to
that over western OK, with steep lapse rates atop the low-level
inversion contributing to MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Consequently, these
storms will likely undergo some intensification as they continue
northeastward. Interaction with the front may also result in some
brief updraft intensification. Given the potential storm
strengthening, some isolated hail is possible. Potential for a
strong wind gusts exists as well with any activity along or south of
the front.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 02/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   35779812 36069749 35799663 34179647 33259761 33079934
            34839864 35779812 

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