SPC MD 83



MD 0083 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MO

MD 0083 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0083
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019

Areas affected...Southern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070533Z - 070700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts possible across southern MO
over the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...A somewhat well-organized convective line has developed
across far southwest MO over the past hour or so. Storm motion is
currently estimated to be 250 degrees at 63 kt. This fast storm
motion as well as the presence of a stable boundary layer (with the
nearest observation to be bow reporting a 46/46) are strong
indications that the convective line is elevated. Linear storm mode
will likely limit hail production with the primary severe threat
coming from convective downdrafts that may occasionally be able to
penetrate the low-level stable layer to produce a strong gust or two
at the surface. Recent observation (0515Z) at HFJ reported a gust of
36 kt. Limited severe potential will preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 02/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36939417 37199388 37429323 37509205 36799178 36559228
            36399387 36939417 

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