SPC MD 84



MD 0084 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MO

MD 0084 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0084
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Thu Feb 07 2019

Areas affected...south-central into southeast MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070650Z - 070745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A localized damaging gust threat (50-60 mph) may continue
across south-central into southeast MO during the next hour.

DISCUSSION...KSGF radar imagery shows a north-south squall line
moving quickly east across southern MO as of 1250am CST.  Surface
analysis indicates a stationary front draped east across southern MO
through the OH/MS River confluence.  Relatively cool surface
conditions reside east of the squall line and range from the mid 40s
north to the upper 50s south.  Forecast soundings indicate no
surface-based CAPE exists downstream of the squall line --in
agreement with objective analysis data.  It appears 62-64 deg F
dewpoints are necessary for surface-based CAPE.  Given the elevated
character of the squall line with embedded nonsupercellular cores
previously showing brief/weak mid-level rotation that has since
dissipated, the expectation for the remaining severe risk is for
localized wind damage (50-60 mph gusts) as the maximum hazard.

..Smith/Grams.. 02/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37469235 37689153 37629082 37299063 37069070 36859103
            36719261 37469235 

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