SPC MD 86



MD 0086 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TX…SOUTHEAST OK…SOUTHWEST AR

MD 0086 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CST Thu Feb 07 2019

Areas affected...northeast TX...southeast OK...southwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070936Z - 071030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An additional severe thunderstorm watch located over
northeast TX into southeast OK, and southwest AR is not currently
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a southwest-northeast oriented
squall line from north-central TX northeast through far eastern OK. 
The airmass over southeast OK/northeast TX is moist/unstable with
surface temperatures near 70 degrees F and dewpoints in the middle
60s.  Strong deep-layer shear vectors oriented largely parallel to
the front, which is serving as the focus for thunderstorm
development, will tend to limit the overall potential for a more
widespread risk for severe gusts due to a setup not optimal for
horizontal momentum transport.  Nonetheless, will continue to
monitor trends in the intensity of the intensifying squall line over
north TX as it moves towards the TX/OK/AR tri-state vicinity.

..Smith/Grams.. 02/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34179634 33029743 32989515 33559389 34159346 34709372
            34509489 35399495 35009571 34179634 

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