SPC MD 88



MD 0088 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR EASTERN IA…NORTHWEST IL…SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WI

MD 0088 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0088
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 AM CST Thu Feb 07 2019

Areas affected...eastern IA...northwest IL...southern and eastern WI

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 071226Z - 071630Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates 0.05-0.15 inch per 3 hours are
possible this morning.  The appreciable freezing rain rates are
forecast to begin first over eastern IA/northwest IL and eventually
spread into WI primarily during the mid-late morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery early this morning shows a precipitation
shield over the middle MS Valley moving to the northeast ahead of a
mid-level dry intrusion evident on water-vapor imagery.  An inverted
surface trough is located from west-central IL northeast into
southern Lake Michigan, a secondary trough located over eastern IA
northward into far southeast MN, and a cold front over eastern IA
accelerating east-southeast.  Surface temperatures from eastern IA
into southern WI range from near freezing at the Quad Cities into
the mid-upper 20s over south-central WI.  

The precipitation shield moving through northeast MO into southeast
IA was associated with hourly freezing rain rates of 0.05-0.15 per
north-central MO observations.  Expecting the precipitation shield
to move downstream from southeast IA across the far eastern
IA/northwest IL region during the next few hours before moving into
WI.  Forecast soundings indicate freezing rain is the favored
precipitation type due to an above freezing layer atop a subfreezing
layer at the surface, with rates generally in the 0.03-0.10 inch per
hour range (0.05-0.15 inches per 3 hours).

..Smith.. 02/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   41649234 42479169 43788958 43928874 43668807 43288793
            40909036 40849142 41099195 41649234 

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