SPC MD 95



MD 0095 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

MD 0095 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

Areas affected...Much of western Oklahoma and portions of central
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 112112Z - 112345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms will move across the area this evening
and pose a threat for severe hail for a few hours.  However, the
threat should remain isolated and short-lived enough to preclude a
Watch.

DISCUSSION...An area of surface low pressure over the Oklahoma and
Texas panhandles is expected to consolidate and swing south and east
over the area this afternoon and evening.  Very strong forcing for
ascent associated with a strong, compact vorticity maximum and the
left-exit region of a mid-upper level jet has already contributed to
thunderstorm development in the deeply-mixed, relatively dry air
mass over the Texas panhandle.  

Farther east, although extensive multi-layer clouds have limited
boundary-layer temperatures to the low-mid 50s, very cold mid-level
temperatures overspreading the area and boundary-layer dewpoints in
the upper 40s to lower 50s will allow for 250-750 J/kg of
surface-based CAPE to develop in the next few hours.  As the strong
lift reaches western Oklahoma by about 22z, deeper convection with
some organization is expected to develop and persist for a few hours
in the 50-60 kt deep-layer shear, as supported by multiple HRRR
runs.  The steep lapse rates could support severe hail, especially
in cells that show more persistent rotation. The strong dynamic lift
may aid in the persistence of the thunderstorms into mid-evening
into eastern Oklahoma, but the severe threat should diminish by then
given the decreasing buoyancy from the deeper low-level stable layer
over that area.  Given the isolated and relatively short-lived
nature of the threat, a severe thunderstorm Watch is not
anticipated.

..Coniglio/Hart.. 02/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   36139991 36489986 36839947 36949850 36479796 35709773
            35289775 34809817 34479856 34289946 34419979 34769989
            35529990 36139991 

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