SPC MD 127


MD 0127 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Areas affected...central and north-central MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...

Valid 232035Z - 232130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues.

SUMMARY...A relative weakness in low-level shear has limited
potential for storm-scale rotation up until now.  Low-level shear
and hodograph enlargement is forecast for the remainder of the
afternoon into the early evening.  A corresponding increase in
severe risk is expected.

DISCUSSION...KDGX VAD data through the early afternoon has exhibited
relatively modest low-level shear (0-1 km SRH less than 150 m2/s2). 
Coupled with some weakness in the mid-level lapse rate above 500mb,
the two factors have combined to limit storm organization in the low
levels and the severe risk through 200-230 pm CST.  However, a
gradual increase in 700mb flow is expected through 6 pm and
low-level storm rotation potential is expected to increase
coincident with the hodograph enlarging and not exhibiting the
degree of veer-back-veer tendency shown in earlier raobs.  As such,
gradual storm intensification and increase in the severe risk with
an accompanying threat for tornadoes is expected.

..Smith.. 02/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   32649088 33898929 33838869 33368850 32399011 32319053
            32369084 32649088 

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