SPC MD 149


MD 0149 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2019

Areas affected...East central Georgia...southwest South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 032019Z - 032215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Discrete storm development underway across the area, with
additional convective development expected. Isolated damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible, both in the near
term with the current convective development, and later with more
mature convection approaching from the west. A tornado watch will be
issued shortly.

DISCUSSION...Discrete supercells are currently in progress across
central Georgia, and are approaching the discussion area, with more
recent development of isolated storms noted in eastern Georgia.
These storms are intensifying in a modestly unstable airmass, with
over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE noted. Current Mesoanalysis indicates up to 40
knots of effective bulk shear, with 1954Z CLX VAD profiler data
suggesting up to 0-3km SRH present across the area. Though low-level
shear is modest across the discussion area, increasing low-level
flow is expected with the approach of the surface low, thus
potentially elevating the tornado threat, both with the current
development across the discussion area, and storms approaching from
the west. 

A tornado watch will be issued shortly.

..Squitieri.. 03/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   31628126 31188228 31098330 32898355 33588319 34088259
            34218046 33957875 33057910 32038058 31628126 

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