SPC MD 158



MD 0158 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST FL

MD 0158 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2019

Areas affected...portions of west-central/northwest FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 040705Z - 040900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A strong wind gust or two will be possible as
thunderstorms move onshore the next few hours. Overall severe threat
will remain limited and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong storms offshore and to the north of
the Tampa Bay vicinity will continue to track toward the
west-central/northwest FL coast over the next few hours. Short-term
hi-res guidance suggests this convection should weaken as it moves
inland. However, at least low-end potential exists for a strong wind
gust or two to occur near the coast before weakening ensues. This is
mainly supported by a tongue of weak (500-1000 J/kg) instability
along the coast coincident with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s F. Additionally, deep-layer shear remains quite strong
and capable of maintaining organized convection. In addition to a
strong gust or two, the tornado threat across the region is
non-zero. Favorable instability/shear parameters noted above will
align with 0-1 SRH values around 100-200 m2/s2. However, as
temperatures continue to cool, weak boundary-layer inhibition should
limit overall tornado threat. Overall, severe threat appears limited
in scope as well as in space and time and a watch is not expected.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 03/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   28278287 28788265 28818235 28818204 28678179 28518166
            28108160 27908171 27558210 27468250 27458271 27568288
            27858296 28278287 

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