SPC MD 194


MD 0194 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...Northeast Colorado...the
Nebraska panhandle...and far southwest South Dakota


Valid 131627Z - 131930Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow is expected through the afternoon with snowfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. In areas where it is currently
raining, a transition to snow is expected within the next 2 hours.
Blizzard conditions are expected across this entire region by early

DISCUSSION...A rapidly deepening surface low with a minimum pressure
around 971 mb is currently located in southeast Colorado. This
surface cyclone is likely near peak intensity as current water vapor
analysis suggests the system has become mostly vertically stacked
and occlusion will likely begin soon. This is supported by a
relative stall in surface pressure falls in southeast Colorado
between 15Z and 16Z after several hours of 2 to 3 mb per hour falls.
Rapidly falling heights have quickly cooled the column and
transitioned rain to snow across much of the Front Range with
moderate to heavy snow. There are still a few locations which are
still observing rain, but these locations should transition to snow
in the next few hours. In addition, snowfall rates have rapidly
increased over the last 2 hours as dCVA, frontogenesis, and
isentropic ascent have maximized across this region. As mid-level
temperatures continue to rapidly cool, thermal profiles will support
occasional convective elements with thundersnow potential across
much of this region.  

In addition to the increasing snowfall rates, sustained surface
northerly winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph are present
across most of this area. Current surface temperatures near freezing
are likely limiting significant additional visibility reduction due
to blowing snow, but this will change quickly in the next few hours
as temperatures continue to fall. By early afternoon, most of this
region will likely be observing blizzard conditions with
visibilities less than a tenth of a mile in many locations.

..Bentley.. 03/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39180521 39790581 40520606 41170618 42270614 42990581
            43430522 43550407 43470328 43080173 42300169 41230221
            40270282 39030329 38590359 38380429 38650500 39180521 

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