SPC MD 196



MD 0196 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NE…NORTH-CENTRAL KS

MD 0196 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Areas affected...South-Central NE...North-Central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132035Z - 132200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are expected
into the early evening from portions of north-central Kansas into
south-central Nebraska. Locally strong winds and some hail are the
primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to steep
low-level lapse rates across western OK into extreme south-central
NE, immediately ahead of an intense surface cyclone over southwest
KS. Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading into
this region with an arcing band of gradually deepening cumulus, with
showers, now extending from Webster County NE-Saline County
KS-Sumner County KS. Over the next few hours isolated thunderstorms
should evolve within an strongly sheared environment characterized
by surface-based cape on the order of 1000 J/kg. Given the strong
shear, updrafts may struggle to organize due to the somewhat meager
moisture/instability. Even so, robust updrafts should evolve with
time and locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail should be
the primary threats. At this time it appears the coverage/intensity
of this activity will be insufficient to warrant a watch.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 03/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   38659790 39749853 40669903 41379790 40869656 38659630
            38659790 

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