SPC MD 203


MD 0203 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Areas affected...Northern/Central/Southwest
LA...East-Central/Southeast TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 22...

Valid 141052Z - 141145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 22

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and hail will persist
across northern/central LA and east-central/southeast TX for the
next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Convective line continues to move east-southeastward at
around 35-40 kt. Sporadic updraft intensification has been noted
within the line over the past two hours with the strongest updraft
currently located in San Augustine county TX. This trend is expected
to continue as newly developed updrafts pulse up in before weakening
as a result of dry air entrainment. Hail will be possible within
these newly developed updrafts as well as a slightly higher wind
damage potential than the rest of the line. Downstream air mass is
moist but relatively warm temperatures around 850 mb support modest
convective inhibition and a tempering of the overall instability.
Even so, organized character to the convective line suggests it will
continue gradually east-southward for the next hour or so. 

Downstream watch issuance is not currently anticipated for those
portions of southeast TX and central/southwest LA not in Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 22. Isolated hail and/or damaging winds gusts are
possible in these areas but coverage is not expected to merit watch
issuance. An extension in time may be warranted across northern LA
to cover any severe threat persisting past 12Z.

..Mosier.. 03/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   31989367 32899280 32869216 32349200 31249219 30579301
            30539492 31989367 

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