SPC MD 209



MD 0209 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 24… FOR FAR SOUTHERN IN/PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL KY

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Mesoscale Discussion 0209
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Areas affected...far southern IN/parts of west-central KY

Concerning...Tornado Watch 24...

Valid 141738Z - 141845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 24 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercell tornado potential appears greatest near the OH
River in the vicinity of Owensboro during the next hour and shifting
eastward with time.  Surface pressure falls are greatest in the
Kentuckiana region which is at north edge of richer low-level
moisture.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates an area of pressure falls
(3-4mb per 2 hours) is located from near Owensboro, east to
Louisville, and north to Columbus, IN.  A southwest-northeast band
of quasi-discrete supercells will move into this region from the
west.  Richer low-level moisture is concentrated from I-64 and south
as evident by surface observations with dewpoints near 60 degrees F
in the vicinity of I-64 to 63F at Owensboro as of 12pm CDT/1pm EDT. 
RAP forecast soundings also imply the greatest tornado risk in this
small corridor where buoyancy (500 J/kg MLCAPE) and 0-1km SRH (400
m2/s2) are juxtaposed during the next 1-2 hours.  Farther north into
south-central IN, more marginal moisture will tend to limit an
otherwise greater risk for tornadoes.

..Smith.. 03/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...

LAT...LON   37628756 38158699 38338632 38068617 37708635 37468721
            37628756 

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