SPC MD 212



MD 0212 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

MD 0212 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Areas affected...Southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 141910Z - 142045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are possible with large hail and
damaging winds as the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Surface-based storm development has started across
southern Mississippi along and ahead of a surface front currently
from near Jackson, MS to far southwest MS. Cross boundary effective
shear around 40 to 45 knots and MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg should
support discrete supercell development. Weaker lower tropospheric
flow and somewhat veered surface winds have led to relatively weaker
low-level shear in this area. While tornadoes cannot be ruled out,
the tornado threat is much lower in southern Mississippi than in
Tornado Watch 25. 

Limited storm coverage will likely preclude the need for a watch in
this area, but if supercell coverage becomes more scattered, a watch
may be needed.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 03/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   32498986 32638935 32608844 32008834 31548856 31108927
            30869006 30889045 31169071 31649062 32169024 32498986 

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