SPC MD 215



MD 0215 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 25… FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI…THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA

MD 0215 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0539 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Mississippi...through central
Alabama into northwestern Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 25...

Valid 142239Z - 150015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 25 continues.

SUMMARY...Vigorous thunderstorm development, including a few
supercells, will likely continue, with a slow eastward progression
across mainly central and eastern Alabama, through 8-10 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Discrete thunderstorm development, including
supercells, continues, and appears generally focused along a
confluent zone near a lingering 40+ kt south/southwesterly 850 mb
jet axis.  The jet appears likely to undergo only a gradually
weakening into early evening, in the wake of the deep cyclone
migrating across the Great Lakes, with also only a relatively slow
eastward progression.

Given the corridor of weak to moderate boundary layer instability
along this axis, supported by mid 60s surface dew points, the
environment appears likely to remain supportive of supercells with
potential for tornadoes into at least the 00-02Z time frame.  It is
possible that some of this activity could spread into portions of
northwestern Georgia, but activity seems likely to remain to the
west of the Atlanta metropolitan area, where a more stable
environment is expected to generally prevail.

..Kerr.. 03/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   34438620 34658479 33438499 32008687 31698767 31708851
            32878836 34438620 

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