SPC MD 217



MD 0217 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MI

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Mesoscale Discussion 0217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southern Lower MI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 28...

Valid 142322Z - 150045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 28
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat should be maximized over a small part of
southern Lower MI over the next hour or so. A strong to damaging
wind and isolated tornado threat continues.

DISCUSSION...Although thunderstorms have remained low-topped across
southern Lower MI over the past hour, at least one TDS has been
observed with a rotational velocity couplet in Shiawassee County.
MLCAPE remains weak, generally in the 250-500 J/kg range, but this
is apparently sufficient to support surface-based thunderstorms with
both a damaging wind an isolated tornado threat. A strongly veering
wind profile in the 0-1 km layer per KDTX VWP is supporting updraft
rotation, with effective SRH of 350-400+ m2/s2 estimated from 23Z
mesoanalysis. Another low-topped supercell has developed ahead of
the broken line of thunderstorms, and given the degree of low-level
shear, an isolated tornado could occur in the next hour or so.
Beyond 01Z (9 pm EDT), instability should weaken further, and the
overall severe threat should gradually diminish.

..Gleason.. 03/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   41938431 42048447 42118463 42618429 43268401 43428381
            43428335 43208308 42858308 42098341 41888375 41938431 

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