SPC MD 221



MD 0221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

MD 0221 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Areas affected...the central Carolinas into southeast Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151936Z - 152200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage should gradually increase over the next few
hours, and a few may produce locally strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Heating has contributed to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE from
GA into SC, with lesser values northeastward into VA. This zone of
relatively warm air exists in advance of a cold front, now moving
into central GA and across the western Carolinas where a band of
precipitation exists ahead of the front.

Visible imagery show increasing CU fields as well as a few weak
thunderstorms along the front especially from GA into SC where
heating is strongest. Forecast soundings show a warm layer below 700
mb which is likely contributing to slow storm growth.

As heating persists, a few strong storms are expected to develop.
Generally long, straight hodographs suggest cellular activity, but
mixed storm mode is possible as well with line segments. Given
southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35-45 kt, some storms may produce
marginally severe wind gusts. Small hail cannot be ruled out with
the strongest cores.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 03/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   33897919 33458014 33158113 33198167 33468199 33668196
            34058163 34498125 35098018 35677952 36097874 36537793
            37107706 37297634 37137590 36777579 34617815 34097878
            33897919 

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