SPC MD 222



MD 0222 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND….SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA…NORTHERN NEW JERSEY…SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK

MD 0222 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Areas affected...Parts of central Maryland....southeastern
Pennsylvania...northern New Jersey...southeastern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152340Z - 160145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A narrow line of storms may be accompanied by some risk
for potentially damaging wind gusts through about 8-9 PM EDT across
the northern Mid Atlantic Coast region, mainly west and northwest of
the Greater Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.

DISCUSSION...An evolving narrow line of generally low-topped
thunderstorm activity appears to have formed within lee surface
troughing, in response to an area of enhanced mid/upper forcing for
ascent and and lower/mid tropospheric cooling spreading to the east
of the Allegheny mountains.  The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that
a secondary surface low may be in the process of forming across the
northern Mid Atlantic coast region into southern New England by this
evening.

Peak boundary layer CAPE appears limited to around 500 J/kg or so,
and should begin waning with the onset of radiational surface
cooling during the next couple of hours.  So current vigorous
convective intensities are not anticipated to be particularly
long-lived.  However, strongly sheared, 40-50 kt mean southwesterly
flow in the convective layer could still support some increase in
potential for damaging convective gusts through 00-01Z, before
storms begin to weaken.

..Kerr/Hart.. 03/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40457579 41477391 41337356 40917368 40207481 39467617
            39347667 39497699 39707688 40457579 

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