SPC MD 228



MD 0228 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA

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Mesoscale Discussion 0228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Areas affected...north-central Kansas and south-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 231956Z - 232200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
within a low-level-directional-sheared environment. Although
instability will remain limited, small hail and a brief tornado or
two may be possible.

DISCUSSION...A strong surface low will move east-northeast, across
northwest Kansas, this afternoon and evening. Although instability
is limited along and ahead of this surface low, strong large-scale
ascent, steep midlevel-lapse rates, and little-if-any convective
inhibition will promote the development of isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon and early evening. The large-scale wind field is
relatively weak across the area, but does exhibit strong low-level
direction shear. Thus, even though thunderstorm updrafts may not be
capable of sustained mid-level rotation, shallow, transient
mesocyclones will be possible with any discrete thunderstorm.
Additionally, cold midlevel temperatures will also support the
potential for small hail/graupel with any sustained updraft. The
threat should quickly end with the loss of diurnal heating. A watch
is currently not expected.

..Marsh/Hart.. 03/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38709927 39649985 40589701 39479656 37959697 38709927 

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