SPC MD 262



MD 0262 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTH TX AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK

MD 0262 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

Areas affected...portions of central into north TX and south-central
OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 061258Z - 061430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts and possibly some
hail is possible from south-central OK into portions of north TX.

DISCUSSION...A line of convection stretching from central TX
north/northeast to Young and Archer Counties in north TX will
continue track northeast around 35-40 kt this morning. Latest
mesoanalysis and 12z FWD RAOB indicated only weak inhibition
immediately ahead of the north TX bowing segment. South of the Red
River, surface dewpoints have increased into the low to mid 60s
overnight, resulting in SBCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. This should
help to maintain ongoing convection this morning and some increase
in intensity is possible, especially south of the Red River.
Additionally, latest VWP from KDYX showed a westerly inflow jet of
around 50 kt between 1-2 kft. This could further enhance a risk for
a few strong to severe wind gusts this morning across parts of north
TX. Addition storms south/southwest of the bowing segment also could
produce gusty winds and perhaps some hail as the line encounters
steeper midlevel lapse rates and marginal shear. 

The bowing segment of the line should decrease in intensity with
time as it tracks north of the Red River where inhibition remains
stronger per 12z OUN RAOB. Surface dewpoints generally range from
the mid 50s to near 60 south of I-40 in OK. Widespread cloud cover
and more marginal low level moisture should limit severe potential
at least in the short term across south-central OK this morning.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   31829823 31499886 31399930 31579955 32119936 32799917
            33359909 33679907 33989896 34279876 34419835 34379792
            34079726 33589714 33129729 32299777 31829823 

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