SPC MD 283



MD 0283 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 43… FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

MD 0283 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...eastern Louisiana into central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 43...

Valid 072344Z - 080145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 43
continues.

SUMMARY...Numerous storms will continues eastward across the
remainder of Louisiana and into western Mississippi, with all modes
of marginal severe possible. The probability of additional watches
appears low at this time.

DISCUSSION...An extensive batch of rain and storms currently arcs
southeastward from the ArkLaTex into southeast LA, supported by a
slow-moving shortwave trough. Ahead of this line, a moist and
unstable air mass remains with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, except
north of a secondary outflow over north central MS where it drops
off quickly.

Shear profiles remain rather marginal for any organized severe
threat, but sufficient to maintain existing convection as outflow
pushes east. Additional cellular activity is possible anywhere ahead
of the line, and perhaps favoring the area immediately ahead of it.
Here, a slight increase in backed surface winds, in combination with
around 30 kt southerly 850 mb flow, may support weak low-level
rotation. Otherwise, the main threat will be marginal wind gusts,
mainly below severe levels, and marginal hail with cells ahead of
the line.

..Jewell.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30129104 30299118 30629123 31029139 31529149 32229169
            32779192 33179192 33289159 33339119 33229055 32778999
            32468972 31658987 31009001 30569024 30199051 30019086
            30129104 

Read more



Source link

  • Editor