SPC MD 316



MD 0316 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48… FOR WEST-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS

MD 0316 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0316
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...west-central into central and north Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48...

Valid 131148Z - 131245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing strong to severe MCS near/east of San Angelo
should exit WW   48 in the 1300-1400Z timeframe.  A new WW will
probably be needed downstream (95% probability of issuance).

DISCUSSION...An ongoing MCS is currently exhibiting severe
characteristics and occasional strong rotation along its leading
edge just east of San Angelo.  Parcels being ingested into the MCS
are probably slightly elevated given its location relative to the
warm front.  Nevertheless, forcing aloft, favorable
shear/instability parameters suggest that forward propagation of
this system should continue downstream toward central/north Texas
through 16-17Z at least, while exiting WW 48 in the 13-14Z
timeframe.  As the MCS exits WW 48, a new downstream severe
thunderstorm watch will likely need to be coordinated with affected
WFOs.  A threat for more surface-based convection will occur on the
southern end of this MCS nearer the warm front along with an
increase in the attendant threat for damaging wind and tornadoes.  A
separate, forthcoming MD will address this potential.  Finally,
lower-end severe hail may occur on an isolated basis with storms
lifting northward toward the Red River.

..Cook.. 04/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31650012 32259999 32719944 32989843 32999710 32899659
            32459613 31989599 31469612 31079631 30879757 30939938
            31180007 31520017 31650012 

Read more



Source link

Editor
  • Editor
  • Website is owned by STL.News, LLC, but hosted, designed and maintained by WebTech Group (WTG). WTG is a St. Louis based web designed firm offering digital marketing services and news sites. We created RSSWX.News to help the major search engines easily find news direct from the source, which is the National Weather Service.