SPC MD 323



MD 0323 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 53… FOR PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA

MD 0323 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Texas into central Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 53...

Valid 131838Z - 132015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 53 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe weather potential, including the risk for
tornadoes, is expected to continue to gradually increase through 3-4
PM CDT.  One or two strong tornadoes is possible.

DISCUSSION...Peak measured (3-second mean wind) winds along the
eastward advancing gust front have generally been on the order of
40-45 kts, generally focused along the warm frontal zone.  It
appears that the apex of the bowing reflectivity structure and
leading edge of outflow will reach the Sabine Valley around 20Z.

Downstream, discrete supercell development continues immediately
ahead of the gust front, near/just north of the warm front, with
additional discrete storms also beginning to initiate in the warm
sector, inland of the coast, near/north of Houston into southwestern
Louisiana.  50+ kt south-southwesterly deep layer mean flow will
support northward motion of developing warm sector cells across a
rapidly destabilizing boundary layer air mass, roughly along a zone
Lufkin TX eastward into the Alexandria LA vicinity (near the current
position of the warm front), during the next few hours.  This is
where near surface hodographs appear largest and the environment
most supportive of tornadic potential through 20-21Z.

..Kerr.. 04/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   31929478 32059390 32229228 31619172 31149179 30649279
            30619382 31009501 31929478 

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