SPC MD 356



MD 0356 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 69… FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW YORK

MD 0356 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Central Pennsylvania and far southern New York

Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...

Valid 150114Z - 150215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
continues across tornado watch 69. Trends are being monitored for a
downstream watch issuance into southern New York and northeastern
Pennsylvania.

DISCUSSION...Reflectivity across western Pennsylvania has increased
along the squall line as ascent from the mid-level trough starts to
overspread the region. While the severe weather threat along the
line will remain focused in the northern half of Pennsylvania where
the line is oriented more favorably for stronger updraft growth,
additional storms may develop ahead of the line in the next few
hours which would pose a severe weather threat in both the south and
north portions of the watch. Any storm which form ahead of the line
will likely be low-topped supercellular in nature considering the 60
to 80 knots of deep layer shear (per CCX VWP) and weak buoyancy. Any
pre-squall line supercells will also pose a conditional tornado
threat considering 0-1 km SRH is over 700 m2/s2 per CCX VWP.

..Bentley.. 04/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   39768020 40827970 42067915 42417907 42667873 42737817
            42697735 42497660 42087647 41157666 39837728 39647842
            39577959 39768020 

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