SPC MD 357



MD 0357 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH CAROLINA…WEST-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA…WESTERN VIRGINIA

MD 0357 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0909 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...South Carolina...West-central North
Carolina...Western Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 150209Z - 150345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue late this evening
into the early overnight period. Wind damage and an isolated tornado
threat will likely exist as a line move eastward across the region.
A tornado watch will be needed soon across the region.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front from
western Virginia extending south-southwestward into far western
South Carolina. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass is in place with
the RAP estimating MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In
addition, the Roanoke, VA WSR-88D VWP shows 55 kt of 0-6 km shear.
This is representative of the deep-layer shear across most of
Virginia and the Carolinas suggesting that a severe threat will
continue. As a linear MCS moves across the region from west to east
late this evening into the early overnight period, the stronger
cells embedded in the line should have a potential for wind damage
and isolated tornado threat.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   37808010 36718122 35068236 34118270 33588209 33548094
            35457962 36317883 37477814 38087912 37808010 

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