SPC MD 358



MD 0358 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW YORK…EASTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA…NEW JERSEY…DELAWARE…NEW YORK CITY

MD 0358 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Southern and Eastern New York...Eastern and Central
Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Delaware...New York City

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 150356Z - 150600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to develop eastward into
southeast New York, eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey over the
next few hours. A tornado and wind damage threat will be likely.
Weather watch issuance will be needed to the east of the current
watches over the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
quickly eastward across the central Appalachians. A well-developed
squall line is located just ahead of the front from western New York
southward into western Pennsylvania. This squall line is moving
eastward at 35 to 40 kt and will move through the remaining part of
WW 69 and 71 over the next few of hours. The line will affect areas
to the east of the watches during the early overnight period.
Further to the east, cells that develop ahead of the line will also
impact areas to the east of the watch. The strong shear environment
evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs will continue a wind damage and
isolated tornado threat along the more intense portions of the line.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   43117642 42477703 41447774 40337801 39007719 38617630
            38527569 38557534 38817490 39457438 40187392 40837365
            41757331 42597326 43267408 43397568 43117642 

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