SPC MD 359



MD 0359 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA

MD 0359 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and northern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 150407Z - 150600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity is
expected. A tornado watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Numerous showers have developed in central North
Carolina within the last hour on the western edge of a higher
theta-e airmass in eastern North Carolina and Virginia. These 70+
degree dewpoints are expected to continue to advect northwestward
which will aid in destabilization across the area as temperatures
cool aloft. The updrafts currently lack deep growth amid strong
shear, but are expected to slowly deepen and eventually reach severe
strength in the next 1 to 2 hours as the instability increases and
the low-level jet strengthens (~70 knots per RAX VWP). Effective
shear in excess of 60 knots will support supercell storm mode with a
risk for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Directional shear is
not all that strong, but 0 to 1 km speed shear in excess of 50 knots
may support some low-level mesocyclone organization.

..Bentley.. 04/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   37537846 37927813 38157770 38257709 38157666 37957611
            37397601 36817646 36317721 35957776 35727808 35787831
            36137850 36927859 37537846 

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