SPC MD 360



MD 0360 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK

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Mesoscale Discussion 0360
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Central and Northeastern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 150433Z - 150630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A wind damage threat may develop across parts of central
and northeastern New York over the next hour or two. The threat is
expected to remain isolated but weather watch issuance can still not
be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front located
in west-central New York extending southward into central
Pennsylvania. A 993 mb low is analyzed in western New York with a
warm front extending east-southeastward across central and
southeastern New York. The northern end of a linear MCS extends
northward to just east of Lake Ontario on the north side of the warm
front where instability is weak. In spite of this, a 50 to 65 kt
low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP in central New York which is
contributing to very strong wind profiles. Due to the strong deep
layer evident on the Burlington and Albany WSR-88D VWPs, the
northern end of the line could have a severe threat over the next
couple of hours. Isolated wind damage would be the primary threat
along bowing portions of the line.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   44137625 43517625 43207607 42607450 42677357 43497324
            44467343 44647466 44437567 44137625 

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