SPC MD 362



MD 0362 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

MD 0362 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 150618Z - 150815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convection may require a watch
issuance, although trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to gradually increase along an
axis from near RZZ to near FAY and also near coastal far southern
North Carolina areas southwest of ILM.  These storms are in an
environment characterized by very strong vertical shear (40-45 knots
0-1km) and weak to moderate instability, with 70s F dewpoints and
minimal inhibition supporting MUCAPE around 1250-2000 J/kg.  Though
storms are increasing, the main source of forcing for ascent remains
tied to the stronger synoptic lift north of the region, with only a
glancing influence on the discussion area currently.  Convection in
southern portions of the MD area appears tied to broadly confluent
low-level flow in that area, with veered surface flow over South
Carolina and slightly more backed flow in eastern North Carolina.
Any convection that can deepen in this regime will pose a threat for
wind damage and perhaps a tornado, with convective coverage being
the main uncertainty for a possible watch issuance.

..Cook/Edwards.. 04/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   35377890 35657839 35987740 36117620 35897551 35417551
            34737649 34227762 33897800 34007859 34427919 34837936
            35377890 

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