SPC MD 364



MD 0364 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 74… FOR SOUTHERN NEW YORK…WESTERN CONNECTICUT…NEW JERSEY…EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA…EASTERN MARYLAND…AND DELAWARE

MD 0364 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0364
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Areas affected...southern New York...western Connecticut...New
Jersey...eastern Pennsylvania...eastern Maryland...and Delaware

Concerning...Tornado Watch 74...

Valid 150750Z - 150845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 74 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 74.

DISCUSSION...A threat for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes
continues along and ahead of an extensive linear convective complex
extending from near ALY south-southwestward through Philadelphia
Metro and southeast of Baltimore, MD.  Continued moist advection
ahead of this line was maintaining mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
within the pre-convective environment, resulting in enough
surface-based instability for downbursts - especially within bowing
segments and areas of rotation.  Point forecast soundings also
indicate enough low-level shear for occasional strong updraft
rotation and a few tornadoes.  With general storm motions of 250/50,
these linear bands of storms should reach the eastern extent of WW
74 (including open waters off the NJ/DE coasts northward into
western Connecticut) after 09Z or so.  

After 09Z, storms should encounter slightly cooler surface air in
place over portions of western Connecticut and vicinity due to
trajectories off the cooler waters of the Atlantic.  Inflow parcels
should gradually become more elevated as a result, although
continued forcing and the linear organization of the ongoing
convection may still result in an isolated wind-damage threat
extending into portions of CT/MA and vicinity.  A new WW is not
anticipated for these areas, however, given the more isolated and
marginal nature of the threat.

..Cook/Edwards.. 04/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   42687387 42587343 42217313 41487296 40637316 39517380
            38747450 38457493 38457582 38657608 39317616 40067592
            40717539 41357492 41637482 42267445 42567418 42687387 

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